Olivier GILLET, Université Rouen Normandie, France
Eric DAUDÉ, Université Rouen Normandie, France
Jean-Christophe KOMOROWSKI, Université Rouen Normandie, France
La Soufrière de Guadeloupe is an stratovolcano that has experienced many various eruptions types in the past. Given theincrease of the activity of the hydrothermal system, the OVSG exert extra vigilance since 2017 and a future intensifica-tion of the activity is not excluded [3]. Faced with the difficulty of forecasting volcanic activity, the only individual protectionis to move forward from the threatened areas, which can be a big issue at a population scale. In french overseas departments,despite the presence of several volcanoes, volcanic emergency management suffers a lack of experience feedback, especiallyfor the volcanoes of the west indie and for a territory such as the the southern region of Basse-Terre with high human densityand strategic issues [2]. A mass evacuation is a complex process, involving many different actors who have to make decisionswith limited information and high uncertainty, on short time scales. And the success of an evacuation will be dependent onthe entire public authorities’ strategy and the public perception of volcanic risk. It is therefore important to plan the emer-gency management and to identify the potential problems or dangers of a mass evacuation. Crisis exercises can be plannedto prepare authorities and population, but they are rarely played due to human and resources costs. The main objective ofthis research is to provide recommendations and relevant information for the stakeholder to assist them in the implementationof mitigation responses. Based on GAMA software and ESCAPE extension [1], a series of evacuation scenarios is tested,combining staged or simultaneous evacuation, whether or not the rapid deployment of local responses. This presentationdescribes therefore an calibrated agent-based model of mass evacuation and its exploration by the OpenMOLE focusing onthe potential staged evacuations of Basse-Terre. We test here different staged evacuations and assess the impact of variouslocal responses on multiple indicators.
Mots clés : agent-based model|staged evacuation|volcanic hazard|risk management
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