2020 and 2021 were marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by the most active tropical storm season in the western Atlantic, heralding the imminent threat of global warming. The first event, despite warnings to prepare for such a pandemic, caught the world off guard, highlighting the failure of virology labs like those in Wuhan and Hong Kong to detect new pathogens. The second event could be considered "the canary in the mine", a harbinger of disastrous climatic futures. But the absence of clear warning signals and the difficult identification of “tipping points” hinder the consideration of these new risks at all levels of action, from the international community to individual consumer choices.
Predictions of "tipping points", during which a small quantitative change in a nonlinear system triggers an abrupt change of the system to a qualitatively different state are therefore of particular interest from the side of environmental sciences, and give rise to many debates. (Hillebrand et al., 2020). In the same perspective, the notion of "sentinel" was introduced in the human and social sciences to analyze the "preparedness technologies" used by States to mitigate the effects of low probability events with catastrophic consequences (Lakoff 2008) . In this context, while prevention techniques are based on probability calculations, sentinels rely on warning signals sent by living beings in defined places (Keck and Lakoff, 2013)..
The purpose of this presentation is twofold: first of all to take stock of current research fronts and the debate on "tipping points" and "sentinels", but above all, in the face of emerging risks, to reconsider our ways of detecting and monitor our environment to prepare for managing, mitigating and adapting to these risks.
It will be based in particular on current research from the University of Arizona (France-Arizona Institute for Global Grand Challenges) and the CNRS.
Mots clés : sentinels|tipping points|territory|South-West Usa
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