Elizabeth DÍAZ GENERAL, Land Use Change & Climate Research Group, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany
Mark ROUNSEVELL, Land Use Change & Climate Research Group, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany
Calum BROWN, Land Use Change & Climate Research Group, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany
Bumsuk SEO, Land Use Change & Climate Research Group, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany
Ecosystem services are the basis for human development and survival, and therefore provide an indicator of human wellbeing; however, they are often degraded by changing and ineffective land management (Hasan et al., 2020; MEA, 2005). Methods for measuring both human wellbeing and ecosystem services are not yet sufficiently agreed upon, or contextualised to local realities (Loveridge et al., 2020). We propose an approach to measuring human wellbeing on large scales but based on local context using the outcomes of the CRAFTY (Competition for Resources between Agent Functional Types) agent-based land use modelling framework (Murray-Rust et al., 2014). As conceptualisation of human wellbeing, we consider the domains of the Millennium Ecosystems Assessments (MEA, 2005) and the protocol developed by Loveridge et al. (2020). We test our method in Great Britain, using the CRAFTY-GB application (Brown et al., in review), analysing its 14 ecosystem services, 4 capitals (human, social, manufactured, and financial), and 50 key socioeconomic variables from stakeholder narratives for the UK’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Harmá?ková et al., in review; Merkle et al., in review). For the validation of the method, the results are compared with existing indicators of human wellbeing, such as Gross National Happiness, OECD Better Life Index, Social Progress Index, World Values Survey, and the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being index. We present a systematised method that provides a spatially explicit quantification of human wellbeing for different climate and socioeconomic (RCP-SSP) scenarios, as well as allowing us to identify potentials and limitations for other applications at national, regional, and global scales. We also develop specifications for the global south and developing countries, thus contributing to an extension of land use modelling as a tool that supports management and decision making for human wellbeing.
Mots clés : Human Wellbeing|CRAFTY|Ecosystem Services|Agent-based model|Land Use and Land Cover Change
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