Abayomi A. ABATAN, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Joshua TALIB, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Remy HOEKSPAANS, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Temitope EGBEBIYI, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Cyril CAMINADE, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Oladapo OLAGBEGI, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Edmund YAMBA, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Anne JONES, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Understanding how climate change affects malaria transmission in Africa is essential for building resilient health services. Previous studies have discussed the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa but using low-resolution climate simulations. The present study investigates the influence of model resolution on the future projection of malaria transmission in Africa. The study uses two sets of pan-African climate simulations (convection-permitting simulations at a horizontal resolution of 4.4 km (CP4) and parameterised-convection simulations with a grid spacing of 25 km (R25)) performed by the UK Met Office as part of the UK Government’s Future Climate for Africa programme. These simulations were used to drive two dynamical malaria models, VECTRI (the vector-borne disease community model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste; Tompkins and Ermert, 2013) and LMM (Liverpool malaria model; Hoshen and Morse, 2005; Ermert et al., 2011), during the present-day climate (1998-2006) and future climate (2086-2104). The result of the analysis indicates that high-resolution simulation improves the climate over Africa. Hence, the distribution of malaria over tropical Africa is well reproduced in the CP4 simulations. Malaria infection is projected to increase in the future, with the highest infection rate over the Central African Republic, Congo, and Sudan in particular. The study indicates that explicitly representing deep convection improves the simulation of malaria transmission over Africa.
Mots clés :
A104876AA