Dan BALTEANU, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Marta JURCHESCU, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Gheorghe KUCSICSA, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Dana MICU, National Meteorological Administration, Romania
Teodor SORIN, National Hidrological Institute, Romania
Mihaela SIMA, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Ana POPOVICI, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Land degradation processes, through landslides, soil erosion and gullying, represent major threats for agricultural lands, built-up areas and the transport infrastructure.
The Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathiansare one of the most affected landform units of Romania by the above-mentioned slope hazards, which frequently occur in association with floods and flash-floods, leading to large economic damages. The overlap with the overall high seismicityresults in a multi-hazard risk environment.
The aim of this paper is to analyze present and future potential land use/cover and climate changes at a regional scale and the extent to which these could influence the distribution and intensity of land degradation hazards in the region.
In order to explore future potential changes according to the current situation, the mid-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) time-periods were investigated. The future land use/cover change were predicted by applying the CLUE-Smodel based on the CLC database. Changes in precipitation were investigated based on simulations from three EURO-CORDEX global climate models under different representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Additionally, for constructing the spatially distributedhazard scenariosin an interdisciplinary context, specific databases were used in each case.
The main results concerning future land use/cover and precipitation simulations and predicted changes are discussed in relation with the expected impacts on the occurrence of land degradation processes and their management at regional scale. The maps of future land use/cover simulations could represent a useful tool at regional level, in order to adopt appropriate land use planning and environmental policy in line with sustainable development principles. The induced hazard maps could serve the Civil Protection in the frame of an appropriate management system of extreme events and for the increase of social resilience in the region.
Mots clés : land use/cover changes|land degradation|future hazard scenarios|Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians|Romania
A104309DB