Marta JURCHESCU, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Gheorghe KUCSICSA, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Dan BALTEANU, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Mihai MICU, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Mihaela SIMA, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Romania
Landslide susceptibility maps are useful tools for risk analysis providing relevant information for territorial planning and land use sustainable management. Land use/cover changes are recognised as a significant predisposing and preparatory factor of landslide occurrence. Romania represents one of the most landslide-affected countries in Europe. In this paper, the potential impact of simulated future land cover changes on landslide susceptibility is assessed for the national territory of Romania on a scenario basis.
Modelling of future land use/cover pattern scenarios (up to 2075) was carried out following the past trend (1990-2012), using the CLUE-S model with the CLC database. The landslide susceptibility analysis for the national territory was performed using a SMCE approach, in agreement with the European methodological framework, integrating both landslide information and expert knowledge. In order to explore potentially induced changes in landslide susceptibility, the analysis was conducted for both present and future land use conditions.
The results show that land use/cover changes are able to affect slope stability in time, with potential spatially-differentiated increases and decreases in landslide susceptibility in areas already ranked as highly and very highly susceptible. Expected effects are discussed, while also highlighting the possible implications of protective measures, in particular related to forest management. Also, the potential landslide exposures of built-up areas and agricultural lands are illustrated for a number of case studies.
The predicted land use/cover scenarios and the associated landslide susceptiblity maps are useful to public authorities at national, regional, county and municipality levels, providing knowledge for the adoption of appropriate land use planning and environmental policies and the enhancement of disaster prevention and response plans, respectively, in line with sustainable development principles.
Mots clés : Future land use/cover changes|Landslide susceptibility analysis|Impact scenarios|National-scale assessment|Romania
A104289MJ