Linsheng YANG, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Lijuan GU, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Li WANG, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Investigating the spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 is crucial in understanding the routine of spatial diffusion and in surveillance, prediction, identification and prevention of another potential outbreak. However, previous studies attempting to evaluate its spatial diffusion dynamics are limited. Using city as the research unit, and spatial association analysis as the primary strategy, this study has explored the changing primary risk factors impacting the spatial spread of COVID-19 across Chinese cities, under various diffusion assumptions and throughout the whole epidemic stage. Moreover, this study has investigated the characteristics and geographical distributions of high-risk areas in different epidemic stages. The results empirically indicated a rapid inter-city diffusion at the early stage and a primarily intra-city diffusion thereafter. Before countermeasures took effect, proximity, GDP per capita, medical resources, outflows from Wuhan and inter-city mobilities significantly impacted the early diffusion. With speedily effective countermeasures, outflows from epicenter, proximity, and intra-city outflows played an important role. At the early stage, high-risk areas were mainly cities adjacent to epicenter, with higher GDP per capita, with a combination of higher GDP per capita and better medical resources, having more outflows from epicenter, or having more inter-city mobilities. After countermeasures were effective, cities adjacent to epicenter, having more outflows from epicenter or with more intra-city mobilities became high-risk areas. This study provides an insightful understanding of the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 across cities. The findings are informative in effectively handling the potential recurring of COVID-19 in various settings.
Mots clés :
A104279LG