Olumuyiwa Ayotunde OLONIYO, UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN, CAPE TOWN SOUTH AFRICA, South Africa
Babatunde ABIODUN , UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN, CAPE TOWN SOUTH AFRICA, South Africa
Dapo M. OLAGBEGI, UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN, CAPE TOWN SOUTH AFRICA, South Africa
Odoulami C. ROMARIC, UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN, CAPE TOWN SOUTH AFRICA, South Africa
Windmanagda SAWADOGO, UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN, CAPE TOWN SOUTH AFRICA, South Africa
Heatwaves, which destroy the environment and impair human health, have steadily increased since the last few decades due to global warming. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has been suggested as a viable approach to stop global warming and mitigate the associated impacts, but the extent to which SAG can mitigate the impacts of global warming on heatwaves in Africa remains unknown. This study examines the potential impacts of SAG on heatwaves in Africa under the SSP2-45 future climate scenario and at various global warming levels (0.5oC, 1.0oC, and 1.5oC above the pre-industrial level). Daily maximum temperature data from a series of climate simulation datasets for present-day (2020 - 2040) climate and future climate (2050 - 2070) were used for the study. The study defines the extreme hot-day threshold as the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature of the present-day climate and identifies a heatwave as an event in which the daily maximum temperature exceeds the threshold for at least three consecutive days. The characteristics of the heatwave (i.e., duration, severity, and frequency) were analysed for the present-day climate and future climate (with and without SAG intervention). Our preliminary results project a future increase in all heatwave characteristics over all Africa under SSP2-45, with reference to the present-day climate. The results also reveal that the deployment of SAG to keep the mean global temperature at 1.5oC would effectively offset the increase. A stronger SAG injection to reduce the global mean temperature to 1.0oC would lead to decrease in all heatwave characteristics, with a reference to the present-day climate. The magnitude of SAG impacts, which vary across the continent, will be discussed at the conference.
Mots clés : Heatwave|Climate change|Geoengineering|Africa|Global warming
A104209OO