O. Cenk DEMIROGLU, Department of Geography, Umeå University, Sweden
Second homes are a vital part of the economy and the society in Sweden, now even more popularized as a relatively safe vacation option under the pandemic conditions. It is assessed that half of Sweden’s total population has access to one of the ca 700,000 second homes diffused throughout the entire country, especially in and around major amenities such as coastal and riverine environments, forests and mountains. Indeed, Demiroglu, Müller, Back & Lundmark (in press) show that, in Sweden, 34% of the second homes are within a 5 km buffer from the sea coast, 37% are within an only 1 km distance from lakes and major rivers, 26% are within a 20 minutes driving time to ski lifts, and almost all (92%) second homes are located either within or only 1 km away from forest areas. These findings highlight the significance of these climate-based amenities for second home localizations, also reflected in the property values that increase exponentially around ski resorts as well as the seaside close to urban areas. However, this also points out to an inherent exposure to the ongoing climate crisis. Based on data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Demiroglu et al. name the future trends for thermal comfort (in general and for the beachside and the mountainside), sea level rise, water stress, flood-fire-storm risks, and snow reliability (for snow sports), as well as any climate-induced land cover and use changes (e.g. de/forestation, emergence of vineyards), among the major determinants of second home development in Sweden, from a climatic perspective. In this presentation, our aim is to visualize the potential (un)suitability of Sweden for second home development by using a GIS-based overlay analysis of the aforementioned climate risks/opportunities according to different pathways throughout the 21st century.
Mots clés : second home|tourism|climate change|GIS|Sweden
A104038OD