Pace ANDREA, Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Malta, Malta
Attard MARIA, Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Malta, Malta
Urbanisation is a global phenomenon resulting in the loss of natural and agricultural land. A better understanding of this phenomenon could result in better planning especially where land resources are limited. This paper makes use of development planning applications to determine where and which type of urban growth is occurring on the densely built island-state of Malta. The work contributes to the literature on urban growth in the Mediterranean. The initial part of the study is data-driven and looks at the development planning applications. It describes the methodology through which data is collated, cleaned and text mined using descriptors that define urban growth. The second part of the study takes a positivist approach and tests the theory of diffusion and coalescence (Dietzel et al., 2005a; Dietzel et al., 2005b) which is rooted in the theory of spatio-temporal urban dynamics and social physics (Blumenfeld, 1954). The theory of diffusion and coalescence assumes that urban growth starts with the establishment of an urban core referred to as the “urban seed”. The urban areas grow outwardly, forming new pockets of development resulting in the diffusive phase. The new pockets consolidate resulting in a saturated environment. Sometimes the saturated environment becomes a new urban seed if the pattern is replicated at a higher scale. Finally, logistic regression is used to examine the independent variables affecting the different types of urban growth. This will support the development of an urban growth model and project future growth trends in Malta. The study establishes a new methodology for the identification of urban growth through the analysis of development planning applications and determines spatio-temporal patterns related to the different forms of growth observed. The study gauges how different variables relate to urban growth. This methodology will be useful to monitor urban growth in Malta and to improve the existing planning system.
Mots clés : urban growth|theory of diffusion and coalescence|development planning applications|Malta
A104006PA