Ayedun RHODA, University of Cape town, South Africa
Babatunde ABIODUN, University of Cape town, South Africa
Windmanagda SAWADOGO, University of Cape town, South Africa
Romaric ODOULAMI, University of Cape town, South Africa
Naomi KUMI, University of Cape town, South Africa
Studies have indicated that climate change, which makes several regions in Africa drier with more frequent and severe dry spells droughts, is a threat to production of maize, one of the most important crops and stable food in Africa. While Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) has been proved to be the cheapest strategy for mitigating temperature-related impacts of climate change globally, there is a dearth of information on potential impacts SAG on maize yield over Africa. The present study investigates the future impacts of SAG on maize yield in Africa under SSP2-45 future climate scenarios at various global warming levels (0.5°C, 1.0°C and 1.5°C above pre-industrial level). We analysed a series of maize yield simulations from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) over Africa. The simulations were forced climate simulations from the community earth system model (called CCSM). The results of the analysis show that the simulation gives realistic maize yield distribution over Africa. The simulations project a decrease in maize yield in most parts of Africa with a maximum (>20%) in Western Africa, Botswana, and Namibia. The SAG intervention to keep global warming at 1.5°C does not offset the impact of climate change on the crop yield but lowers it. Offsetting the impact, requires a stronger SAG intervention to lower the warming to 1.0°C and 0.5°C levels. Hence, the study suggests that SAG could offset the negative impact of global warming on maize yield in Africa.
Mots clés :
A103931RA