Temitope Samuel EGBEBIYI, University of Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
Chris LENNARD, University of Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
Izidine PINTO, University of Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
Romaric ODOULAMI, University of Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
Babatunde ABIODUN , University of Cape Town, South Africa, South Africa
Projected changes in the future climate are expected to significantly affect the agricultural sector, notably agricultural production which include crop suitability, growth, and yield in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (OCED/FAO, 2016). While studies have revealed Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) could mitigate the impact of temperature due to climate change, there is still a lack of understanding on this will affect agricultural production in SSA (Robock, 2015). The present study examines the impact of climate change (GHG) and SAI on crop suitability and planting season over SSA focusing on southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA). We use the multi-ensemble climate simulation datasets from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensembles (GLENS) project for the period 1980-2009 and 2060-2089 (Tilmes et al., 2018). Ecocrop, a crop suitability model was used to investigate the impact GHG and SAI on the suitability and planting season of cereals crops, maize, sorghum, pearl millet over SA and WA. Our findings shows while SAI offset the impact of climate change on temperature over both regions region it leads to reduction in rainfall in Botswana and Zimbabwe in SA and over West Africa (Yang et al., 2016). Cereal crop suitability increases and decreases northwards over SA and WA respectively. SAI interventions results in a decrease in cereal crops suitability in SA compared to the projected increase with GHG. In WA, all the crops remain highly suitable south lat 12oN except along the south-west coast from Guinea to Liberia for maize and pearl millet compared to impact of GHG (Egbebiyi et al, 2020). Also, our findings show a 1-2months early planting season for all the crops due to SAI intervention over the two regions. The study will help improve our understanding on SAI intervention impact on agricultural production over SA and WA and inform policy makers in their decision making and adaptation strategies to ensure food security and zero hunger over the regions.
Keywords: Climate Change|Stratospheric Aerosol Injection|Crop suitability|Planting season|Sub-Saharan Africa (southern and West Africa)