Abayomi A. ABATAN, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Gbenga ABIODUN, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Babatunde ABIODUN, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Edmund YAMBA, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, United Kingdom
Malaria remains a big threat to human health in Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan African countries, where the majority of the population are at risk of infection from this deadly vector-borne disease. While studies have shown that climate change (which fuels extreme weather events like heatwaves and flood) can escalate the future risk of malaria infection over the continent and that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) is the most viable and cheapest way to mitigate temperature-related climate change impacts, there is a scarcity of information on potential impacts of SAG on malaria infection over Africa. The present study takes advantage of the recently released SAG climate simulations from WACCM CESM2 simulations to advance our understanding of the role of SAG on climate change and malaria transmission. The simulations were used to drive a malaria model (called VECTRI) in simulating malaria infection rate over Africa during the present-day climate (2020-2039) and future climate (2050-2069, with and without SAG) under SSP2-4.5 at different warming levels (0.5oC, 1.0oC, and 1.5oC above the pre-industrial levels). Our preliminary results show an increase in malaria infection in a future climate without SAG. The implementation of SAG to maintain the future climate at a 1.5oC warming level offsets the projected increase, while the deployment of a stronger SAG injection to bring the future climate to a 1.0oC warming level lowers the malaria infection rate below the present-day climate. The study indicates that SAG may be a viable way of combating the impacts of climate change on malaria infection in Africa.