Manzurul HASSAN, Department of Geography and Environment, Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
Kamrun NAHAR, Department of Geography and Environment, Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
Mariyam MARRY, Department of Geography and Environment, Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
Raihan AHAMED, Department of Geography and Environment, Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
Climate change in terms of rising global temperature and rapid change in rainfall intensity could push millions and millions into ill-health, disease, and morbidity globally (Li et al., 2019; Lowe et asl., 2018; Nuraini et al., 2021; Tran et al., 2020). Bangladesh would not the exception in this regard. Bangladesh is vulnerable to water-and-vector borne infectious diseases that are climate-sensitive. This paper seeks to explore the framework for climate change and health impacts from vector-borne dengue fever that are concentrated on the pattern of present and future climate change with the pattern of morbidity and mortality.
The climate data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department and downscaled with 15 Arc-minute resolution. The baseline information of 1990-2020 and three time-slices representing 2030, 2050 and 2100 were considered for downscaling climate change projections. The impact of climate change on potential dengue transmission was analysed with Vectoral Capacity (VC) model and basic reproduction rate was calculated by transmission potential (TP). The climate change scenario grids were linked to disease mapping for different time slices with fuzzy logic suitability value ranging from “not suitable” (zero) to “suitable” (one) was applied for analysing dengue transmission.
The research shows that dengue fever can be exhibited in future with high cases and deaths. The dengue morbidity incidence can be increased to about 1.8, 3.1, and 5.9 times in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, and the fatality could be increased by 1.3, 1.9, and 2.7 times during the same projected years respectively compared to the baseline dengue morbidity and mortality pattern. However, the number of cases can be higher during the monsoon as opposed to the winter in Bangladesh. The extent of adverse health impacts relate to climate change can be minimized with patient management, behaviour change communication, and destruction of mosquito breeding sites.
Keywords: Dengue|Aedes aegypti|Bangladesh|Fuzzy Logic|Vectoral Capacity